The 2017 European Tour draws to a conclusion this week, with three players having a chance of finishing first in the season-long Race to Dubai.
Englishman Fleetwood will tee it up at Jumeirah Golf Estates with a 256,737-point advantage over compatriot Justin Rose, while Spain’s Sergio Garcia is 1,051,405 points behind the leader. Rose was European number one in 2007, but neither Fleetwood nor García have topped the end-of-year Tour rankings.
Only the top-60 players this year qualified for the final event, and the leading 10 will share in a $5 million bonus pool, with $1,250,000 going to the Race leader. After the first three they currently are, in order: Jon Rahm, Tyrell Hatton, Ross Fisher, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Alex Noren, Branden Grace and Francesco Molinari.
In the lead up to the event, the European Tour evaluated all the mathematical permutations… and these are the answers:
What does Tommy Fleetwood need to do to win?
It is simple really: the current Race to Dubai leader needs to equal or better Justin Rose’s finishing position to stay ahead of the Turkish Airlines Open champion and claim the title. So long as Rose doesn't finish in the top-five and Garcia doesn't win, 26-year-old Fleetwood will be crowned European number one.
What does Justin Rose have to do?
Rose will need to finish no worse than solo fifth in order to have any chance of winning the season-long title. As long as Fleetwood doesn’t win, a solo second place finish for Rose would be enough to secure the 37-year-old’s second Race to Dubai title.
Memorably, Rose won the final event of the 2007 season, in a play-off at the Volvo Masters at Valderrama, to overtake Ernie Els and become the order of merit champion for the first time.
What would Sergio Garcia need to do?
For Garcia (also 37), the task is straightforward but by no means easy. To have any chance of overtaking Rose and Fleetwood, the U.S. Masters champion would need to win at Jumeirah Golf Estates. That, along with Fleetwood finishing outside of the top-20 and Rose finishing worse than solo fourth, would see the Spaniard complete one of the most dramatic final event comebacks the Race to Dubai has ever witnessed.
Garcia has finished inside the top-25 in all six of his appearances as this event but has never finished in the top-five. His best performance was a tied seventh place finish in the inaugural DP World Tour Championship in 2009.
What are the probabilities of each player winning?
According to our numbers, based on simulations, statistics, form and history at the event, Tommy Fleetwood has a 73 per cent chance of being the Race to Dubai winner on Sunday night; Rose's chances are 24 per cent; and Garcia’s are just three per cent.
Who can still finish in the top-10 in the Race to Dubai?
As for the players who have a chance of sharing in the Race to Dubai bonus pool, anyone in the top-45 in the rankings can still climb into the top-10. The only exceptions to that are Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson, who are ranked 11th and 15th, respectively, but not playing this week due to injury.
