With 47 tournaments played and one to play, the contenders to win the Race to Dubai are only three players. At the conclusion of this week’s DP World Tour Championship in Dubai, only England’s Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose or Sergio Garcia can be crowned the 2017 Race to Dubai champion.
But what does everyone need to do to claim the prestigious European Tour Number One title? Here are all the answers.
Fleetwood, the current Race to Dubai leader, needs to match or better Justin Rose’s finishing position to stay ahead of the Turkish Airlines Open champion and claim the title. As long as Rose does not finish in the top five and Garcia does not win, Fleetwood will be crowned European number one.
Rose, 37, is 256,737 behind Fleetwood in the Race to Dubai and therefore would have to finish at the latest solo fifth to have any chance of winning the season title. As long as Fleetwood does not win, a second place finish for Rose would be enough to secure his second Race to Dubai title.Looking back a few years, the English player won the final tournament of the 2007 season in a playoff at the Volvo Masters at Valderrama in which he overcame Ernie Els to become the Order of Merit champion for the first time.
For Garcia the task is clear but by no means easy. In order to have any chance of overtaking Rose and Fleetwood, the current Masters champion would have to win at Jumeirah Golf Estates. But that would not be enough for him, as he would also need Fleetwood to finish outside the top 20 and Rose to finish worse than fourth place. As it is, the Spaniard has it really complicated. Garcia has finished inside the top 25 in all six of his final tournament appearances of the season, but has never finished in the top five. His best performance was a tie for seventh place in the inaugural DP World Tour Championship in 2009.
What are the odds of each player winning?
According to European Tour numbers, based on simulations, statistics, form and history in the event, Tommy Fleetwood has a 73 percent chance of winning the Race to Dubai on Sunday night. Rose’s chances are 24 percent and Garcia’s only three percent.
Who can finish in the top ten in the Race to Dubai?
As for the players who have a chance to pocket part of the five million dollar Race to Dubai prize fund ($1.250 million for the number one), anyone in the top 45 of the rankings can move up into the top ten. The only exceptions are Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson, who are ranked 11th and 15th, respectively, but are not playing this week due to injury.
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